Obama and the "R" Word, Will He or Won't He?

The only mystery left in President Obama's "final stage" speech Wednesday on the future of health care is whether he will utter the "R" word.

The "R" word, at least as far as the health care debate is concerned, is reconciliation. Reconciliation is the procedural nom de guerre for the majority party's path around the Senate's 60-vote filibuster.

Senate Democrats would like to hear Obama say reconciliation, if for no other reason than to give the maneuver a presidential imprimatur.

"Yes, yes, yes," a senior Democratic congressional source told Fox when asked if Senate Democrats wanted Obama to invoke the "R" word.

Senate Democrats also believe such declaration from Obama would demystify the process and give them a degree of political cover. How? By allowing them to share with Obama the rationale for muscling health care through the chamber on simple-majority vote -- even though they studiously avoided that approach before Sen. Scott Brown's stunning upset victory in Massachusetts deprived them of their 60-vote majority.

House Democrats don't much care if Obama says the "R" word or not. They know the Senate is going to use reconciliation and, they say, so should anyone paying attention.

"Saying it doesn't make it any more or less real," a senior House Democrat said. "If you don't know the Senate is going to use reconciliation by now, you haven't been paying attention."

In fact, House Democrats are far more worried about what will happen in their chamber. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still has to corral enough votes to pass the Senate health care bill. If she can't, the reconciliation process stalls before it even starts.

"With reconciliation, things are easier for the Senate Democrats, it's on our side where things are still difficult," the House Democrat said. "I don't think people fully appreciate that."

In fact, there really is no mystery about all this.

Obama will not use the "R" word Wednesday, two White House officials told Fox.

"When in this entire year-long process have we ever benefited from talking about process," one White House official asked rhetorically. "Answer: Never."

The White House knows if Obama says "reconciliation" in Wednesday's speech that will become the headline. This will thrust Obama knee-deep into arcane Senate procedures and rules -- the last place White House officials want Obama to be.

The administration doesn't deny Obama is already in the reconciliation soup by inference -- it's his health care bill, after all. But they still see some distance between him and what's likely to be a contentious Senate tug-of-war over reconciliation.

Instead of talking about reconciliation, Obama will use Wednesday's speech to remind the nation about the stakes involved and about his recent efforts - outlined in a letter to congressional leaders today - to incorporate GOP ideas from last week's health care summit. Obama will also say his new found interest in Republican health care ideas proves he's willing to compromise. If the GOP won't respond in kind, Obama will imply the fault lies with a minority party incapable of deviating from its obstructionist ways.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine said Tuesday if Republicans don't play ball, then the process of reconciliation will be invoked. He also predicted Obama will at least indirectly suggest that's the likely - and possibly only - way forward.

"In accordance with the rules of the Senate, that's a possibility," Kaine said, referring to reconciliation, during an appearance on Fox's Studio B with Sheppard Smith." You'll hear the president talk about that."

As have other Democrats, Kaine portrayed reconciliation as a maneuver to allow the majority to prevail.

"Democrats have a majority for a reason," Kaine said. "The American public wanted them

to have a majority."

Kaine said he believes Republicans will reject Obama's most recent policy overtures.

"When they don't accept the olive branch, that signifies that the time for backing and forthing is done and it's time to vote," Kaine said. "Americans understand that. The American people elected this president to get results. They don't care about the inside baseball."

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said process does matter and said Democrats are courting political disaster if they use what he called heavy-handed tactics to pass health reform by circumventing the filibuster.

"I wouldn't want to be a Democrat voting for this bill," Hatch told Fox. "And I don't believe they'll have enough votes to really pass it. However, if they can mutilate the rules in this body and they can utilize the reconciliation rule, they can let eight of their Senators go to vote against it, even though that would be about as phony as you could get. Then they could pass it with 51 votes. It would be one of most disastrous, stupid things you could possibly do."